The other day a reader wrote in to ask us an interesting question:
Michael and Randy,
Do you think it’s possible that Google is really playing us for fools? I was looking at my Analytics report the other day and saw something really disturbing. I was hoping you could take a look and see if you come to the same conclusion I did.
We don’t normally do pro bono SEO analyses but this particular reader had recently been in the news for saving a woman from being hit by a taxi. We figured we could do him a favor and take a look, since not everyone saves people who are about to be hit by taxis.
However, before we get to our analysis of the report, let me give you a little background on what the problem seems to be. You see, many people in the SEO and Internet marketing communities have been complaining for years that Google secretly decides which Websites will receive the most traffic. For example, Danny Sullivan has teased Matt Cutts on more than one occasion about how there is a law that says “Wikipedia must appear at the top of Google’s search results [more often than any other site]”. Matt, for his part, has never publicly denied the allegation.
Most of the SEO Web forum communities have featured at least one so-called “conspiracy theory” discussion where someone has claimed that Google was deliberately targeting their Website for a penalty. On the surface this seems to be absurd but Matt Cutts has confirmed that Google does single out Websites for penalties so there is something to be said for the arbitrary exclusion of perfectly good and honest Websites that provide useful information to people on the Web.
So while most of us want to believe that Google is only interested in providing the best possible search results for its users, we also have to acknowledge that Google’s founders are determined to change the world. Your Website may not be synthetic hamburger but it IS the coin that pays for Sergey’s little jaunts into making a Civilization: Call To Power Meat Vat a real thing.
With all these side projects, Google’s founders clearly need a constant stream of income to fund their hobbies, and what better way to do that than to play Kingmakers of the Web? Suddenly, it doesn’t sound so far-fetched, does it? And if you think they don’t take these kinds of decisions seriously, you obviously haven’t watched the infamous Web Quality team video where dozens of Googlers collectively decide the fates of millions of Websites.
These secret meetings go on all the time, maybe every week — at least every month. The fate of your business, the security of your children, lies in the hands of former college interns who agreed to work for Google’s billionaires in exchange for foozball rallies and free tacos. Let’s just say that they are not necessarily the brightest LEDs in the Christmas store display, given how few of them actually receive the billions of dollars that Larry, Sergey, and Eric have made since starting Google in the late 1990s.
All that aside, there is the question of data. I mean, who besides me has been demanding hard data from all these conspiracy nutcases for years? You can find plenty of “me too” posts in the SEO forums where people whine and rant about how “evil Google” has singled them out for persecution. I don’t want to hear about your woes — I want to see some data. Well, after nearly a decade of poo-pooing all these fanatical claims about something funky going on with Google’s algorithms, I have to admit that someone has finally shown me some pretty convincing evidence. Frankly, it’s unnerving.
In fact, along with the analytics reports our source (let’s call him DEEP LINK to keep his identity safe) also provided a link to a fascinating video in which Matt Cutts answers a question directly about how much Google secretly manipulates the search results, ensuring your Website receives “only so much traffic”, sort of like his famous “peanut butter PageRank” metaphor from SMX Advanced 2007.
You can see the video here:
Now, I am sure you can see the same problem I do. But what I really find disturbing in this video (aside from the Totoro plushie Matt is holding up with his left hand) is the fact that he is so proud of what Google has accomplished. He goes so far as to claim that Google is manually jiggering the search results in dozens of languages around the world and he implies that Google may try to extend its reach further.
But enough of this circumstantial evidence. The proof is in the pudding, as they say — or, in this case, in the analytics. Randy was the first to notice the glaring and obvious trend in our source’s social media conversion goals. As you can see from the screen capture here the manipulation is quite obvious and, to my mind, somewhat disturbing. It’s almost like watching kids pop bubble gum over and over again. I mean, the changes are clearly produced by a computer and when you start to look really close at this report no one is going to be fooled. So, come on, Google! What’s up with THAT?
But it isn’t just the social media signals that Google is manipulating. We had a Facebook capture we were going to show you but apparently there is a dispute over the rights to certain images on Facebook. We’re waiting to see if we can get permission to use that example. On the other hand, I decided to look directly at the direct referrals in the search data to see if there was any meaning to the pattern.
And here is what I found. I have to say that I am stunned beyond belief:
There is no question about what is happening here. It’s as clear as night and day. You can see the downward trending line in the data. An obviously good Website should not be experiencing this kind of drop in traffic and there seems to be no obvious explanation. After all, the traffic downturn dates don’t line up with any known Google algorithmic changes. It’s more like there is something else going on.
When you can so easily identify this kind of subversive manipulation in your analytics data, you have to throw your hands up in the air and ask, “Is this what I am paying good money for?”
Seriously, though. Where else can you expect to find the evidence you need to prove that something flaky is going on with your search referral traffic? We all know that Google Analytics is about the best darned free analytics package that Google has to offer you. So why on Earth would they want to savagely brutalize your analytics data like this when they know it’s the lifeblood of your online business? You’d think a couple of guys who got rich off of a dumb idea like PageRank (“which cannot be gamed”) would have sense enough to realize that the more successful they make you the more successful THEY will be. And, after all, who doesn’t want to eat synthetic hamburger grown from stem cells? I know I’m looking forward to the day when cows can laze in the pasture without having to worry about an early, violent death.
And that’s where Randy and I put our brains together. We figured out what is going on. You should be able to see it for yourself in this screen capture we took on Quantcast. I think the motivation is obvious.
It’s this kind of impartial data that lends credence to the cries and complaints that have echoed throughout the halls of SEO for years. When you finally sit down with evidence as compelling as this you have to re-evaluate your standards and decide once and for all if you’re going to take this sitting down or if you’re going to stand up and do something.
For my part, I say it’s time we took back the Web and let Google know that we’re not going to allow this to happen. We want to be successful and rich just like Larry and Sergey, and we’re not obsessed with artificial cow meat, either.
Anyway, that’s what we have to say about it. Let us know what you think.
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